Stick to the Facts when Betting on Local Elections
Though betting on local elections might seem silly at first, it is important to keep in mind that there are a few different ways to do it. Opinion polls are one thing and may give a bit of insight as to who people think will win, but it is better to pay attention to the general odds as these predictions are often much more insightful. While major newspapers worldwide pay people to predict these outcomes, there are times when they are dead wrong. As such, it is important to consider all sources of information. One of the most important examples here is the 2008 presidential election in which general odds were predicted with much more accuracy than opinion. Then, in 2004, the favorite won in every single state and showed that it is indeed possible to win money by following fact rather than opinions. In fact, there is only one time in history back in 1916 that the candidate deemed the favorite in the month before the elections actually failed to win.
For a great example of how it works and why opinion polls are a bad idea when betting on local elections, keep in mind that Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams of Britain, a man who studies such predictive power, was asked to predict who would win the 2005 general election and by what margin shortly before the voting began. He called out his victor and claimed that this win would be by more than 60 seats. Of course, the opposition was confident that the margin would be much higher, so during a televised event, Vaughan-Williams was asked to place a bet. Luckily for him, he accepted and it turned out that the predicted individual won by a margin of just over 60 seats. Opinions are indeed important, but not when it comes to placing a stake.